Friday Huddle
Musk’s Political Moonshot: Can the America Party Win Over the Politically Homeless?
Pundits and conventional wisdom have dismissed Elon Musk’s plans to start the America Party effort as either a fit of pique over passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill or as Ross Perot part deux siphoning off Republican votes and helping Democrats win in 2026 and 2028.
I’m being kind in saying conventional wisdom is currently batting just a tick above Jim Cramer’s stock picks over the past few years, so I’m not sure this situation falls squarely into either camp. Plus, betting against Musk rarely yields significant returns over the long haul.
Last week, I reviewed some data from our Overton Insights Poll on the politically homeless, which indicates there’s significant interest in a third party in the U.S. and voters are certainly hungry for a new option.
So, could it happen? Who would it hurt? Is this a lifeline to Democrats? Could this be a clever GOP effort to overcome negative tailwinds heading into the midterms?
Let’s roll.
Can the America Party Win Over the Politically Homeless?
Over 50 million registered voters, 34% of the electorate, identify as political orphans or politically homeless. There’s a significant audience for something new, especially among non-boomer voters tired of a gerontocratic Congress.
There has been one poll to date testing the possibility of a Musk-led third party. Conducted by Quantus Insights, voters were asked whether they would consider supporting a new party created by Elon Musk named the “America Party,” aimed at representing voters who feel unserved by the current Democratic and Republican parties.
Two in five (40%) of voters were at least open to voting for a Musk-led third party
14% said they would be very likely to support or vote for the party
26% said they would be somewhat likely
22% were unsure
Only 38% said they were unlikely to consider it
A 40% ceiling is really high and totally unrealistic.
In polling and survey data, you often calibrate results with real-world behavioral probabilities to get a more realistic estimate of what’s possible. This is even more important if you’re looking at a mogul-led party without a platform outside of cutting the national debt.
If you take these results and include some realistic probabilities from prior research and history, you can get a more representative view of how many voters could align with a new party.
So, while 40% express interest, the realistic projected support is around 12–15%, which is comparable to other third-party candidates for President, such as Ross Perot’s run in 1992, and about double what John Anderson got in 1980.
While he didn’t win any electoral votes, Perot captured 19% of the national popular vote and damaged both established parties. Perot pulled more from President George H.W. Bush’s base than Bill Clinton, handing the keys to Pennsylvania Avenue back to the Democrats after a long drought.
How Would Musk’s America Party Have Shaped the 2024 Election?
To estimate the impact Elon Musk could have with a third party, I revisited the results of the 2024 presidential election using data from our Overton Insights poll. As part of our polling methodology, we ask respondents how they voted in the last Presidential election, not to weight responses (as some pollsters do), but to backtest our sample weights and as a sanity check on the results.
Using self-reported 2024 votes, I built a “what-if” scenario: What if a strong third party had captured 50% of the 34% politically homeless voters? What might 2024 have looked like?
Trump’s lead increases, not because more people support him, but because a strong third party splits the anti-Trump vote, much of which currently leans toward the Democratic column.
Kamala Harris loses a larger share of voters (–8 points) because self-described politically homeless voters skew left-of-center and include younger voters who tend to default to the Democratic party.
We also ask a generic ballot question for Congress. Here’s how a strong third party might have reshaped the 2024 congressional vote:
A third party could draw support from both major parties, with a slightly greater impact on Democrats.
Now, third-party candidates rarely win Congressional seats, but they can act as spoilers. Based on these numbers, a third party could draw support from both major parties, with a slightly greater impact on Democrats depending on the district and state.
This is a really back-of-the-envelope estimate based on self-reported vote history, survey intent, and hypothetical behavioral shifts. It does not account for all real-world constraints, such as ballot access, candidate viability, Trump’s approval, etc.
Critics might call the 50% capture rate optimistic. Still, the
poll shows 40% of voters open to a Musk-led party, with a realistic 12–15% support when adjusted for behavior, which is not that far off from Ross Perot’s 19% in 1992.Despite conventional wisdom’s doubts, a well-financed third party that is strategically targeted could hurt Democrats more than Republicans.
This is Trump’s second midterm, and historically, control of the House typically switches parties. The only recent exception to the six-year itch was Bill Clinton in 1998, who gained seats, forced Newt Gingrich out of the House Speaker’s chair, but failed to win back control of the House from the GOP.
Musk’s financial resources, technology, and X platform could boost a party enough to siphon enough votes in swing key congressional or Senate races in the midterms if deployed wisely.
Who Could Musk’s America Party Attract?
Like Perot before him, Elon is discussing the national debt and the budget, and there will always be an appetite for a portion of the electorate revved up about the budget deficit.
From the right, he could attract:
Chamber of Commerce Republicans disillusioned with Trump’s populism and trade policy
Libertarian-leaning voters skeptical of foreign and culture wars, such as younger anti-establishment Joe Rogan types
Suburban moderates drifting toward Democrats, voters in the perimeter counties of Atlanta, would be a good example
From the left, he could attract:
Moderate Democrats turned off by the progressive socialist wing
Older, values-first Democrats in rural and swing states
Technology and independent professionals in blue states such as Colorado
A focus on spending, technology, innovation, and clean energy could give homeless moderates a lesser evil to vote for, and it would provide non-progressive Democrats an off-ramp from a party culture they may no longer fully recognize.
A great example would be Colorado, where Republicans have been shut out of statewide office for years. A tech-savvy, entrepreneurial, reform-oriented, and culturally moderate third party could appeal to a state focused on clean energy and the environment, with a lot of defense contractor employees registered in the state. Minnesota, another state where Republicans have largely disappeared, is certainly no stranger to third-party candidates, such as Jesse Ventura.
Again, this is all hypothetical with many caveats, and a lot can and will happen between now and November of 2026. We are entering a new post-Boomer era, and changes are ahead, many of which echo the 1990s and early aughts. With 12–15% support, a new America Party could disrupt key races, especially in swing states. Win a seat or two? Doubtful, but anything is possible.
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