Friday Huddle
What the 2024 Election and Gen Z Are Telling Us About the Future
It’s been quite a week. We started with airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, had a major polling miss in New York’s mayoral race, and are closing it out with key Supreme Court decisions and Jeff Bezos’ celebrity wedding in Venice.
So, where do we start?
Let’s roll.
Polling Missed the Mark in NYC
Okay, I’m the first to admit that polling low turnout municipal elections is difficult. We certainly saw a big miss in New York, where polls steadily showed Andrew Cuomo leading the Democratic primary for Mayor, with winner Zohran Mamdani consistently trailing in most of the polling. I think a Public Policy Polling poll was the outlier that showed Mamdani leading Cuomo.
Mamdani certainly caught fire down the stretch, particularly among younger voters, which probably contributed to the error. If there is a late surge in turnout among younger and new voters, you can expect most of the polls to have some difficulty picking up the momentum.
The other issue is the primary used ranked-choice voting, where voters rank up to five candidates. It’s a confusing process and is likely to hurt turnout, particularly among older voters. On the ballot, voters could list up to five candidates in order of preference. I think most observers believed it would take several ballots before Mamdani would win, but he won convincingly on the first ballot.
Overall, it was not the polling industry’s finest hour.
Pew Postmortem: 2024 Was Trump’s Most Diverse Coalition Yet
The Pew Research Institute published its study of the 2024 election, based on validated voters. The report corroborates many other 2024 postmortems.
Overall, Trump’s win was powered by a more racially and ethnically diverse voter coalition when compared to his prior runs for office. Another interesting point from the report revolved around turnout. Contrary to conventional wisdom among Democrats, the report found that if all eligible voters had cast a ballot in 2024, Trump’s margin of victory would probably have been even larger. In a reversal of prior years, Democrats fare better in lower-turnout elections, such as the midterms or special elections. Elections with national implications now favor Republican candidates.
Other nuggets from their report:
Trump nearly doubled his support among Hispanic voters from 2016
Harris lost ground with Black and Hispanic voters
15% of Biden 2020 voters didn’t vote in 2024, and 11% of Trump 2020 voters didn’t vote in 2024
Voters who didn’t vote in 2020 but did in 2024 supported Trump by 12 points
Overall, young adults were a larger share of non-voters in 2024 than in 2020, but Trump’s support among 18 to 29-year-olds was up 11 points compared to 2016
Despite being a larger share of non-voters, young voters who did show up leaned more toward Trump than in 2016. Based on what happened in New York, many will suggest pursuing a TikTok-friendly campaign style and messaging, similar to Mamdani’s strategy, to shore up the youth vote. However, that strategy will not scale nationally.
Also, Republicans with visions of recreating the young Republican wave of the 1980s when Boomers and Gen X swung right should probably temper the enthusiasm a bit. Yes, we’re seeing a rightward shift among young voters, but it skews male. There’s still a sizable young progressive block that skews female, which can be mobilized with the right messaging. Here’s the rub: the messaging required for mobilizing that audience doesn’t resonate outside of very blue areas.
Republicans stand to gain ground if economic optimism grows heading into the next cycle. Meanwhile, Democrats may now find themselves relying on lower turnout to stay competitive, which is a surprising historical reversal.
Bleak Futures, Big Opportunities: Gen Z’s Vote Is Up for Grabs
Economic anxiety is strangling Gen Z, echoing the post-Carter malaise of the 1980s when young voters, fed up with stagflation, flocked to Reagan’s promise of prosperity.
Talker Research published the results of a survey of 2,000 Americans, which examined generational predictions for what life will be like in forty years.
It paints a pretty grim vision through Gen Z’s eyes. Nearly half (48%) believe retirement will be impossible, a quarter expect to rent for life, and only 35% of non-homeowners envision owning a home in their future.
Overall, 38% of participants across all age groups believed that the next generation will likely be worse off financially than previous generations, and 64% agreed that today’s younger generations will have a worse retirement experience than baby boomers.
Gen Z’s economic dread mirrors the 1980s’ angst and economic malaise, but lacks Reagan’s rosy counter-narrative. Republicans need to channel Trump’s anti-establishment energy into policies that resonate with Gen Z’s pragmatism, like job growth and tech innovation. Democrats will likely focus on affordable housing and debt reform.
Both parties have an opportunity with this group if they can address concerns about housing costs, retirement options, and a stronger economy, accompanied by commensurate real personal income growth.
Whoever delivers on economic growth and increased personal income wins. Particularly, if it’s enough to fund a Gen Z wedding in Venice.
USA Snapshots
A Look At Statistics That Shape The Nation
US Population By Generation 2025
Parting Shot: Weekly Data Insights, No Hype
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Got a poll or trend worth a look? Send it my way—I’m all ears. See you next Friday—data willing.